2009 tourney - Day 3 Preview thread

[Gandalf2]

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Back by popular demand!

So, here we are, as the real business of the tournament gets going, it's time to bring back the voting, the punditry and the discussion (no offence to the other, more disorganized predictions thread). Sure, we've had 7 games already - but this is the first round where people can go out. Let's quickly review the tournament as it's gone so far.

Preliminary round (Sep 27)
#1 SRM beat GB tough game as bios beat IC in 1 hour 51minutes.
#2 DSM lose to BS - a minor shock this one, in a super-quick game of rushes.
#3 ACE beat SPQR as the Legion fail to show 10 pilots.

Then it was on to the first round proper (Oct 4). Winners guaranteed a top 6 finish - losers go into the first elimination round.
#4 SysX beat SRM in a slightly hectic game which had a huge 20v20 turnout. SysX scored an incredible 250 kills to SRM's 70, who just couldn't match up with SysX's whore power.
#5 SF beat XT in the most-talked about game so far. SF go Bios on a big map, XT stay IC and make a decent fist of it, but SF emerge from the 3 hour bomb-fest victorious. For other Bios SG's on Nova, see here and here.
#6 PK beat BS in a game of cap wars... an assault ship with corvettes and 2 battle-ships winning the day. A fast and furious game if there ever was one.
#7 RT beat ACE with a dominant display - gaining early control of the map and not giving the Wildcards a sniff of a chance.

So there's our quick review of the competition so far... now it's onto the preview!

We have three games this week - #12 (SRM vs DSM), #13 (XT vs SPQR) and #14 (BS vs GB). These 6 teams as well as ACE, are chasing the two remaining spots in the top 6 shootout. The winners of #12 and #13 will play off for one of these spots, whereas the winners of #14 will play ACE for the other spot.

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#12 Slipshod Research & Mining (SRM) vs Dark Side of the Moon (DSM)
An interesting matchup, this one. SRM are undergoing somewhat of a resurgence of late; it was only a year or two ago when, following on from the squad's near-collapse following the exit of a number of top names, that they could barely turn up enough people for SG's, and would get thumped in them. Fast forwards to today, and they turned up with 20 pilots against SysX, and a few months ago beat the team ranked 3rd (RT) in a league match. They can no longer be considered pushovers.
DSM are still somewhat of an unknown quantity, having only very recently been officially recognized as an Allegiance squad. Led by the "love him or hate him" FederalMan, they've had a mixed history thus far, beating RT but losing to BS. FederalMan's prediction of a top 3 finish for the squad (anyone have a link to him saying this, or is this a myth I picked up?) look somewhat distant at the moment as they will need to win 4 games in a row to finish on the podium. There's some good pilots in there, but are they good enough and will they work together well enough? Of course, there is always the back-up plan of stealing SRM's meds.
DSM appear to favour very aggressive tactics - but with SRM's home advantage, they may pick map/settings designed to negate this.
Recent history... SRM - Withdrew from 2007 tourney due to low turnout 8th out of 10 2008 tourney, 7th out of 8 2009 league. DSM - new squad, they have beaten SPQR and RT, and lost to BS so far in their history.

#13 XenoTech (XT) vs The Roman Legion (SPQR)
XT are one of the game's stalwarts and former #1 squad. Though their star has waned somewhat in recent years, they are still more than capable of beating any squad out there. They have a lot of pride in their skill and losing to SF (again) will have hurt them. They may now be in the loser's brackets but they will still have a major say in how things end up, and in my eyes are easily the strongest team playing this weekend.
The Roman Legion apparently disbanded about a week ago, only for this to be reversed the very next day. Will they manage to stay together long-term, under the leadership of Cheezits? I do not know, but I do know they have very little chance of winning this. However, it is only through learning from your defeats that a squad can improve.

Recent history... XT - 2007 tourney winners, 2008 tourney 4th of 10, 2009 league joint 5th out of 8. SPQR - 2008 tourney 10th of 10, 2009 league 8th of 8 where the competed jointly with BS.

#14 Black Shadow (BS) vs German Borg (GB)
Now this game is a bit tricky to predict, as there is so little form to go by. Black Shadow competed in the league jointly with The Roman Legion - and lost all their games, whereas the Borg did not participate in the league.
Black Shadow did, however, manage to beat Dark Side Of The Moon last week - their first defeat (admittedly in only their 3rd game) and also it remains the only away win in the competition thus far. They do however sometime have problems with showing 10 pilots - but perhaps the prospect of an important match will encourage a good turnout.
As for GB - I'm having difficulty finding recent match reports of them so don't have much to go on! They did turn up with 11 for the double competition though - and they were part of the winning team. Two weeks ago against SRM, they turned up with even more pilots and were involved in a 2 hour game, which they eventually lost.
When it comes to comparing the skill level of these two squads - I don't think there is much to choose. Both have a small number of top players and a lot of solid/average players. A tough one to call. Both are also known for bombing too - so this could be over pretty quickly!

Recent history... BS - 2007 tourney 7th of 7 (though 2 others dropped out due to low turnouts), 2008 tourney 9th of 10, 2009 8th out of 8, flying with SPQR. GB - 2007 tourney withdrew due to low turnout, 2008 tourney 6th of 10, 2009 league did not enter.

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Gandalf predicts...
#12 SRM - thanks to home advantage
#13 XT win due to SPQR not having enough pilots (would be happy to be wrong!)
#14 GB

Final votes...
SRM 49-37 DSM, XT 87 - 4 SPQR, BS 52 - 36 GB
Vote for "who will be in top 3 besides SysX and PK".... RT 50, XT 18, SF 12, DSM 7, ACE 4, SRM 3, BS 2

Results & links to match threads....
To do

After this week, the tourney takes a break before we come back for SUPER SUNDAY - after which we will know the identities of 2 of the top 3 teams, and the identities of the other 4 teams battling to join them there.

[HSharp]

I think SRM should be able to defeat DSM, home advantage to pick a good map for themselves and they might be able to beat Joe Genius and his henchmen, but then if DSM remember to probe and manage to get started <15mins after SG time they have a fair chance at winning as well.

XT vs SPQR might not even be happening with problems at SPQR numbers.

BS vs GB should be an interesting matchup, and though BS have performed admirably I do think the boys in Borg can pull this one out of the bag to beat back BS after giving SRM a tough match.

The SysX vs ACE and XT vs RT friendlies should be good fun as well while PK, SPQR and SF have a week off

[zombywoof]

I've got

SRM over DSM:

DSM showed a weakness last week to large, team-based squads. When SRM showed their twenty pilots the heavy hitters of DSM will be hard pressed to keep abreast of a relentless assault by SRM. I should know, I was there when PK had a little trouble keeping SRM down last tourney. I think this game really does come down to numbers, though I trust Fedman will bring as many of his pilots as possible.

XT over SPQR:

If (IF) SPQR shows enough pilots, this will still be a walk. XT is properly furious after last week, and as we know, XT runs on hate and rage. Add to that SPQR's recent "we're disbanded.... loljk" and losing their best pilots to other squads (Exer, Kramari, and Valiance have left) SPQR will be VERY hard pressed to make a game out of this one.

GB over BS:

It depends on who shows. I suspect BS to forfeit this one, since they only showed 10 last week after PK gave them thirty minutes and permission to grab someone from the main game and tag him really quickly. If BS does show their 10 (or greater) it largely matters who shows: with H_Mallow, Turkey13, and Captain Fwiffo, SpathiwanBlack Shadow has a very good chance of winning. If they manage to convince Picobozo and Darkling to show, I can see BS winning handily. Otherwise, I see GB prevailing in this one.

[Adept]

SRM
XT (but I hope SPQR shows up to play)
GB vs. BS is a bit of a coin toss. Whichever squad has more vets show up wins. I'll bet on GB, but only pocket change.

[One-Man-Bucket]

ooh goodie, these threads are fun. And it shows that gandalf puts a lot of work into making them. Good show!

If our game vs spqr had been played and if spqr had map they would have won due to me commanding and them picking one of those maps that has "preview unavailable" as preview.

[Vortrog]

I wont comment on our match up, but I think there will definitely be a RAGE factor in this round. The greater rage though will be from XT and GB so if I was going up against these squads, I would bring a level head and gameplan and sneak some atomoxetine into their food before the game. of course, you can purchase our special squadleague party packs HERE

XT could get there except for the fact that Xeretov has joined SPQR (nice work SysX...some actually believed that chat at our SG), and BS could also feel like the Pole's on 3rd Sept 1939, especially now they showed their bombrush trumpcard early (yes, I still remember us getting rolled like that by them....old wounds never heal)

[Broodwich]

since when has bs NOT bombrushed

[HSharp]

I remember one time ryjam didn't bomb rush and it really threw me because I was waiting hopefully for it with caltrops and towers by myself while rest of team went after his miners

[spideycw]

QUOTE (Broodwich @ Oct 6 2009, 05:42 PM) since when has bs NOT bombrushed

obsidian
belters
tac

[Broodwich]

i thought that was srm