88.99%

badpazzword · Post by **badpazzword** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:26 pm

That is the minimum percentage of games the outcome of which can be predicted successfully just by looking at who is playing, without considering who of those is the commander. We are speaking of ALL games with two teams that made it to the ASGS database, whatever the length, whatever the number of players, whatever the type, including even draws.

Discuss.

(EDITed for clarity)

Post by **Raveen** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:27 pm

Is it a different value for SGs over PUGs?

Also you need to take into account that the stronger com gets stacked more so Strong com = strong team.

Malicious Wraith · Post by **Malicious Wraith** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:31 pm

You also need to factor in that the vast majority of coms are incompetent to varying degree's, so this number is not reasonably reflected.

Me versus Vlymoxyd is certainly a game deciding comm differential, provided I get a team that can at least do what the $#@! I tell them too.

sgt_baker · Post by **sgt_baker** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:48 pm

Raveen wrote:QUOTE (Raveen @ Oct 23 2008, 01:27 PM) Is it a different value for SGs over PUGs?

Thanks for reminding me that I still need to write the SG detection code and squad rating system.

QUOTE Also you need to take into account that the stronger com gets stacked more so Strong com = strong team.[/quote]

There is certainly evidence for a correlation between team skill and commander skill. I do actually have a scatter graph knocking around here somewhere which displays the effect. I'll link it when I've found/regenerated it.

B

Edit: Hrmph. So it turns out that I re-purposed the scatter graph code to do something completely different at some point. Time to undo my doings. 'yx

sgt_baker · Post by **sgt_baker** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:23 pm

Scatter plot of Team 0 skill vs Team 1 skill. Positive values mean team 0 was more skilled. Negative values indicate that team 1 was more skilled. Red dots indicate team 0 win, blue team 1 win.

If you don't understand what this graph is telling us, don't lose any sleep over it. All it demonstrates is that better comms attract better teams.

Grimmwolf_GB · Post by **Grimmwolf_GB** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:35 pm

This post looks misplaced. Was it supposed to be in gameplay?

badpazzword · Post by **badpazzword** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:50 pm

Yes. My point is, isn't that percentage too high? Does it not affect the enjoyability of the game? Is it really fun to have a game where "the stack" (for every value of stack, including pretty even games) wins 88.99% of the time? Is it possible that map, factions and settings can only be found in the remaining 10.11% percent? Should we do anything about it?

Or am I just misreading the data?

EDIT: I do not have answers. Just questions.

Evincar · Post by **Evincar** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:00 pm

once alleg skill is implemented, enforced autobalance might actually be a possible, community supported option?

sgt_baker · Post by **sgt_baker** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:11 pm

Our pre-launch autobalancer is certainly very effective. Post-lauch AB is still a work in progress. Blancing skill and numbers whilst also keeping everyone happy (and accounting for people joining/dropping etc etc) turns out to be a particularly gnarly problem. Fortunately post-lauch AB is a distinct work effort and separate to the principal drive towards implementation of the new rating system as a whole.

As of today I finalised the C# implementation of AS, and only minor changed will need to be reflected in the SQL version to sync them up. This leaves us in a position where we will be able to calculate ranks natively in ASGS. Once both TE and I are satisfied with progress to that point, I can begin work with DogBones on getting pre-launcg autobalance implemented in AllSrv. Post launch AB might take a while longer, since we really don't have an effective algorithm at the moment. Sorry, but I'm working on it.

B

spideycw · Post by **spideycw** » Thu Oct 23, 2008 2:26 pm

I think you could get a higher percentage by taking a look at who is commanding on what Map with what Factions with what Factions than 88.99% personally