500e is an awesome car but - nice derail mrc.
The green man are taking over east ukra.
We have seen it in the past.
Appeasement is the worst type collaboration.
Russian/Ukraine ordeals
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germloucks
- Posts: 756
- Joined: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:00 am
- Location: Seattle
Putin is going to quickly realize that once he turns on the russian nationalists in eastern Ukraine, you can't just turn em off again whenever you want. The tensions are going to keep escalating, giving the EU/US plenty of room for new sanctions, plenty of room to justify more aid, and plenty of hand-wringing all around.
Also, public support for Putin seems to be at all time highs, the public has largely hated and blamed the west for the state of their country. Despite how disgusting and horrible Stalinist rule was, a solid portion of Russians still pine for the years of Stalin. He took control in a time when they had sticks and stones, and left them a nuclear power. The Russian psyche has always believed in strong totalitarian rule. Not all of them, of course, but dissenters are muffled, silenced, and marginalized easily.
This is again a double-edged sword, your public can be supportive and you can have firm control of your state but you can't rule an economy. There will no doubt be more sanctions, and estimates already show sub 1% GDP growth with the sanctions that are already in place, and skyrocketing inflation. Many billions of dollars in foreign investment have already fled the country. Also, a large part of Putin's budget is from natural gas sales, and they certainly underestimate how quickly the EU is going to wean themselves off it, thanks to booms in other countries like the US.
They're playing a mean game of poker, but they just don't have the cards, and the pot they are trying to bluff everyone out of isn't really a big deal anyway. What is Crimea other than savings on the black sea fleet access prices they were paying, what is eastern ukraine other than an administrative nightmare with hardly any economic importance. It just doesn't make any practical sense, Putin and his cronies are somewhat isolated financially and won't necessarily go broke or anything but their country will definitely pay a steep price over the next decade.
Also, public support for Putin seems to be at all time highs, the public has largely hated and blamed the west for the state of their country. Despite how disgusting and horrible Stalinist rule was, a solid portion of Russians still pine for the years of Stalin. He took control in a time when they had sticks and stones, and left them a nuclear power. The Russian psyche has always believed in strong totalitarian rule. Not all of them, of course, but dissenters are muffled, silenced, and marginalized easily.
This is again a double-edged sword, your public can be supportive and you can have firm control of your state but you can't rule an economy. There will no doubt be more sanctions, and estimates already show sub 1% GDP growth with the sanctions that are already in place, and skyrocketing inflation. Many billions of dollars in foreign investment have already fled the country. Also, a large part of Putin's budget is from natural gas sales, and they certainly underestimate how quickly the EU is going to wean themselves off it, thanks to booms in other countries like the US.
They're playing a mean game of poker, but they just don't have the cards, and the pot they are trying to bluff everyone out of isn't really a big deal anyway. What is Crimea other than savings on the black sea fleet access prices they were paying, what is eastern ukraine other than an administrative nightmare with hardly any economic importance. It just doesn't make any practical sense, Putin and his cronies are somewhat isolated financially and won't necessarily go broke or anything but their country will definitely pay a steep price over the next decade.