2018 Election Prediction: I think the Republicans will keep the house and senate

[Win98SE]

There is an election in like 2 days. So, how about so a prediction from a political oracle who has never been wrong about an election (IE me)

My prediction:

I think the balance of power in the House of Representatives will change by no more than 10, IE 10 more Republicans or 10 more Democrats, not enough to change the Republican majority.
I think overall the Senate will have the Republicans get 2 to 5 more senators than they have now.
Basically I do not think the Republicans will lose the house or senate. Here is why:


House:

The Republicans have controlled the house for 20 of the past 24 years, including the last 8 years.
Every member of the house is up for election every 2 years. ALL OF THEM. 2 Years ago the Democrats could have taken the house. They didn't.

A party does not "win the house", a party (IE the majority party that can actually do things) "loses the house". The minority party can not do anything really. They can do bipartisan legistation by voting with the majority party, IE like the budget. But they can't really block or pass anything on their own, they don't have the votes. The majority party can do things. This is what causes them to lose the house. They pass unpopluar laws, screw up and get voted out.

I see no real reason for the Republicans to lose the house. There is nothing they have passed or done that has seriously affected the voters enough to lose the house.
When a party loses the house, there has been a reason of their own making:

-Bill Clinton and the Democrats had the house and senate. After 2 years they lose both. Reason? To go with the poor economy and Branch Dividian disaster, they also passed the assault weapon ban.

-George Bush and the Republicans had the house and senate, and after 6 years lost them both. Reason? The poor economy and the Iraq war mess.

-Obama and the Democrates start with the house and senate. After 2 years they lost the house. Reason? Obamacare.

The minority party did not do anything to earn a victory, they really can't. The other party just screwed up and lost. This is similar to the Presidency.

There is a reason a party loses the house, and the Republicans have not created a reason yet. They haven't passed anything bad enough or screwed up enough to lose the house.

The current 25 seat lead the Republicans have is one of the largest for them in the last 24 years. I believe the Republicans also control far more state legislatures, which set the districts for the representatives. IE the Republicans can jerrymander better. I know that "The party in power usually loses seats", but if you look at the numbers over the last 20 years it is usually like 3-10. Not enough to swing the house to the Democrats.


Senate:

The Senate is up every 6 years, sooooooooo.... The last time these people were elected was when Obama was reelected. 6 years ago. Those 6 years have not been good for Democrats. Most of the Democrates voted against repealing Obamacare, against Trumps judges, and for Obama's univeral background gun registration. These are issues that will hurt them in red states.

There are like 33 people up for election, 23 of them Democrats + 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats, and 8 Rebublicans. Something like 10 of the Democrats are in states Trump won, with 5 of them states Trump won by double digits. I am not exactly sure of the numbers, but its something like that.

As for the Republicans: "Nevada is the only state in the midterm elections that has an incumbent Republican Senator in a state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016."


Sources:

My gut. History. Wikipedia.

Political power in the United States over time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political ... _over_time

Control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives: 1855-2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_div ... Senate.png

United States Senate elections, 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St ... ions,_2018

[ryujin]

I'd guess the dems take the house, and the repubs still control the senate.

[peet]

What is going to change in major US politics if the dems would "take" The House while the reps "hold" the Senate?

[Win98SE]

QUOTE (peet @ Nov 5 2018, 02:38 AM) What is going to change in major US politics if the dems would "take" The House while the reps "hold" the Senate?

If the Democrats take the House of Representatives if would be very hard for congress to pass laws. Like now but worse. (Both chambers are needed to pass laws) The House can also impeach the president. Also the Democrats can launch investigations from the house.

The Senate can confirm Supreme Court nominees that are chosen by President Trump, should any openings on the Supreme Court come up.

Actually I don't know if anything will really change lol, President Trump can blame the Democrats in the House if the government is unable to pass new laws and the Democrats can say they were elected to stop Trump and the country realizes it made a mistake with Trump and Trump can tweet that......

Well I guess nothing would really change except the blame and butthurting. Gridlock as usual.

[Terran]

QUOTE (peet @ Nov 5 2018, 03:38 AM) What is going to change in major US politics if the dems would "take" The House while the reps "hold" the Senate?

Really, nothing. Legislation would get blocked .. but not much is being passed anyway

[ryujin]

QUOTE (peet @ Nov 5 2018, 03:38 AM) What is going to change in major US politics if the dems would "take" The House while the reps "hold" the Senate?

I will probably owe Paps $100

[ryujin]

Raising the US Canadian deficit slightly more. Self fulfilling prophecy.

[cashto]

I'm going to go with the common wisdom: the Dems will pick up about 35 seats in the House, a bit more than the 30 or so that typically go against the president's party in the average midterm election.

Senate will shift by MAYBE one vote to the Dems, meaning VP Pence will spend a lot more time breaking ties in the Senate.

Partisan deadlock will continue to the foreseeable future. The House will probably put up a lot of bills that get punted by the Senate or by Trump. They will be in charge of many onthe going Congressional investigations, so things are likely to get very wild on that front.

Still very cloudy whether Trump will get impeached. I imagine after the election Mueller will unveil more indictments against Trump insiders, mainly for financial crimes. He will probably not go up against Trump directly, but will lay out the evidence to Congress and let them decide. I suspect Democrats will want to draw out the investigation for as long as possible to embarrass Trump, but unless something crazy happens, they will not cross the Rubicon.

[zombywoof]

Dems win the house, Republicans keep the senate, but the seat totals don't change (maybe republicans pick up 1).

Dems spend the next 2 years running around in circles like chickens with their heads cut off and wonder why they lose in 2020.

[Raveen]

Pst, guys, it's not the election that you need to sort out it's wholesale electoral and constitutional reform.