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Ryujin wrote:QUOTE (Ryujin @ Dec 18 2018, 01:54 PM) I think he is super guilty, and incompetent. And the only reason he hasn't been impeached yet is because the 2 Senators per state is an artifact of antiquity that gives a (republican) minority control over the majority.

I also think Trump is guilty or why else would he be trying so hard to stop the inquiries into his dealings with Russia?
By the way, you didn't answer my question.

phoenix1 wrote:QUOTE (phoenix1 @ Dec 18 2018, 02:42 PM) I'd put even money on him being impeacehd by the end of his term, yeah. I wouldn't put money on him being removed from office though, and history has suggested that administrations who end up impeached but staying in office tend to not do so hot in their next round of elections.

I know that a few Presidents have been impeached but I'm only aware of what happened to Nixon & Clinton.
I'll have to take your word for it when it comes to what you posted.

Nixon was not impeached. There have been 2 presidents impeached, 0 of whom have been removed from office. Nixon resigned because he was probably going to be impeached.

Whether or not Trump is guilty is, imo, beyond doubt now. Forgetting the amount of energy being put into denying it, the fact of the matter is his personal lawyer plead guilty and was sentenced to three years in prison. His Nat Sec advisor just went in front of a judge who said, "Are you SURE that you would like to be sentenced... RIGHT NOW... after the thing you said in the media? Are you QUITE CERTAIN you don't have more cooperation you can do with the government in the course of their investigation?" Paul Manafort is in prison after having bail rescinded. If DJT was not the President, FBI agents would have put him into custody already. The only thing keeping him out of an orange jumpsuit with his assets not completely frozen is the political and legal clout he wields as President of the United States.

Simple majority from the house to impeach (indict),
then 2/3 from the senate to convict (remove)

would be pretty wild for that to ever actually happen

https://twitter.com/adamgoldmanNYT/stat ... 4612321281

How to tell a judge is annoyed at you.

Seriously, this guy was NOT having it:

https://twitter.com/adamgoldmanNYT/stat ... 1693954048

Sheriff Metz wrote:QUOTE (Sheriff Metz @ Dec 18 2018, 03:29 PM) Simple majority from the house to impeach (indict),
then 2/3 from the senate to convict (remove)

would be pretty wild for that to ever actually happen

Yup. I have no doubt that they will be able to easily find the votes in the House to impeach him whenever they want, even as early as Jan 3rd if they wanted to.

The only question is if or when they pull the trigger. No one will want to go through the drama of impeachment if removal isn't certain. That'll require the entire Democratic caucus, plus 22 of 53 Republicans, to vote for removal.

My guess is that the House is going to keep investigating Trump and his inner circle and try to ratchet up the pressure to the point that the GOP will be begging Democrats to impeach him. If they can get to the point where Trump has no hope for re-election and the only possibility the GOP sees for keeping the presidency (and save downballot races) is to run someone like Pence -- that's the only scenario I see them actually tossing Trump overboard.

But probably they would just double down and stick with Trump, figuring themselves for lost no matter what they do.

Papsmear wrote:QUOTE (Papsmear @ Dec 18 2018, 06:07 PM) By the way, you didn't answer my question.

Sheriff Metz wrote:QUOTE (Sheriff Metz @ Dec 18 2018, 07:29 PM) Simple majority from the house to impeach (indict),
then 2/3 from the senate to convict (remove)

Sorry Paps, I'm not sure exactly what your question was. Metz answered any question I inferred- feel free to ask me a specific question and I will do my best to answer it.

I *think* Papsmear's question is whether the votes on that website are caused by people *expecting* or *hoping* a certain thing will happen. I was pointing out that I could believe even-odds for impeachment because of how the process works: I could see a world in which the Democrats decide impeachment proceedings are the way to win the 2020 election. It's a fair question though: how many people are taking this bet on the feelings of "I want this to happen so imma bet for it." Same reason people bet the underdog, right?

Papsmear wrote:QUOTE (Papsmear @ Dec 18 2018, 10:28 AM) Ryujin do you think the vote is reinforcing the split between the right wing and left wing in America or a true belief of how impeachment happens?

I bet that more than half of US citizens still think "impeachment" means forced resignation. It's a common mistake.

Impeachment is similar to a vote of no confidence. Also it should lead to resignation. He hasn't been impeached because dems know he won't resign so it will only cause crisis and further divide.

Dome wrote:QUOTE (Dome @ Dec 19 2018, 02:06 AM) I bet that more than half of US citizens still think "impeachment" means forced resignation. It's a common mistake.

Impeachment is similar to a vote of no confidence. Also it should lead to resignation. He hasn't been impeached because dems know he won't resign so it will only cause crisis and further divide.

This

Ryujin...The quote highlighted in Dome's last post was my question.

P1 that was a mistake on my part mentioning Nixon along with Clinton being impeached.
I'm aware of the details of what happened to Nixon and why he resigned as the POTUS.