Donald Trump

cashto · Post by **cashto** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:54 am

Terran wrote:QUOTE (Terran @ Jul 11 2018, 05:16 PM) i personally don't think this is going to have a long term impact. China can't sustain this level of protectionism, still being the developing economy that it is. their authoritarian government depends on the economy doing well and people getting richer as almost the only legitimizing factor. would they be able to pull a Putin and transition from results-oriented legitimization to nationalism-based appeasement? i doubt it as the Chinese people lack the history of having to suffer a deterioration of life conditions in the name of great power status. faced with the choice of market liberalization or prideful recession, i think the government will be forced to choose the former. lots of fascinating implications for China's future if they indeed choose that.

but i could be wrong

While it's true that even authoritarian regimes benefit from the legitimization associated with economic growth -- the Chinese government is still far more insulated from the need to deliver results than the American government will ever be. In the US, the ruling party needs to survive an election every 2-4 years; in China, the ruling party only needs to do just enough to stave off a revolution. Also given the history of the two countries, I think the American people are far more accustomed to comfort and far less tolerant of economic pain than the Chinese. Almost certainly we'll blink first -- but even that's not the point. No one 'wins' in a trade war.

And that's not to mention all the other countries we're picking fights with. If it was just China, maybe we could survive, but we can't declare war on the whole world simultaneously and expect them to suffer more than we do at home.

If your hypothesis is that sanity will ultimately prevail and the duration of this self-inflicted pain will be short, I wonder where you get your optimism from, because all experience to date leads me to believe Trump, and his supporters, will only double down on delusion when reality comes to smack them in the face.

Terran · Post by **Terran** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:02 am

cashto wrote:QUOTE (cashto @ Jul 11 2018, 08:54 PM) While it's true that even authoritarian regimes benefit from the legitimization associated with economic growth -- the Chinese government is still far more insulated from the need to deliver results than the American government will ever be. In the US, the ruling party needs to survive an election every 2-4 years; in China, the ruling party only needs to do just enough to stave off a revolution. Also given the history of the two countries, I think the American people are far more accustomed to comfort and far less tolerant of economic pain than the Chinese. Almost certainly we'll blink first -- but even that's not the point. No one 'wins' in a trade war.

And that's not to mention all the other countries we're picking fights with. If it was just China, maybe we could survive, but we can't declare war on the whole world simultaneously and expect them to suffer more than we do at home.

If your hypothesis is that sanity will ultimately prevail and the duration of this self-inflicted pain will be short, I wonder where you get your optimism from, because all experience to date leads me to believe Trump, and his supporters, will only double down on delusion when reality comes to smack them in the face.

you could be right. but i'm not so sure. the US is institutionally quite accustomed to significant recessions - the last one didn't even cause a change of government, even when accomplishing it is massively easier than in China. plus, the economic impact will be much more severe in china than in the US, given that the US economy is much more diverse and there are large chunks of it that will remain somewhat untouched. China is still in that developing stage where exports are everything, even though local propaganda would have them believe otherwise (high tech, AI, aerospace, etc. etc., all actually small portions of the economy iirc).

also while i somewhat understand (not support) the US trade war on China, i agree it's pretty dumb to be doing that with all the allies and neutrals. but who knows? maybe it's to provide that plausible deniability for what it's actually trying to achieve within Chinese borders politically.

cashto · Post by **cashto** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:02 am

And if you don't think China can do petty nationalism just as good as any Western country can ...

Terran · Post by **Terran** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:04 am

oh woops, that recession was 2007 and obama was elected 2008, i guessss that counts as change of government, but it's not like a democrat beating a republican after 2 republican terms was that big of a deal anyway...

Terran · Post by **Terran** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:16 am

cashto wrote:QUOTE (cashto @ Jul 11 2018, 09:02 PM) And if you don't think China can do petty nationalism just as good as any Western country can ...

ah, that's quite different though. prosperity wasn't a factor in those people's decision to go out and demonstrate. my theory still holds in that they were still largely happy with the way their government was making them all rich, just not with the way it was handling the Senkaku islands issue. what i'm saying is the prosperity factor is stronger than the nationalism one.

compare these two scenarios... 1. China maintains its stance and the trade war continues - China looses something like 20% of its GDP over like 5 years, massive chunks of the inner territories shoot up in unemployment (coastal areas are quite advanced and can probably cope more or less). hundreds of millions of dudes suddenly with nothing to do and a government to blame.

2. China accepts the US's terms, starts importing a bunch of @#(!ty unreliable American cars, opens up its internet, stops stealing IP, etc. do you see this having as much of a destabilizing impact as the former? i guess you could argue that i'm exaggerating. maybe. too lazy to run a real analysis or do any research.

peet · Post by **peet** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:00 am

It seems the tradewars between US and China intensifies...

Post by **zombywoof** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:04 am

Terran wrote:QUOTE (Terran @ Jul 11 2018, 06:04 PM) oh woops, that recession was 2007 and obama was elected 2008, i guessss that counts as change of government, but it's not like a democrat beating a republican after 2 republican terms was that big of a deal anyway...

There was also a flip of the house and senate.

peet · Post by **peet** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:26 am

Stormy Daniels arrested.

Post by **Dome** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:46 pm

peet wrote:QUOTE (peet @ Jul 12 2018, 02:26 AM) Stormy Daniels arrested.

And?? Case was dismissed already btw.

Post by **zombywoof** » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:48 pm

peet wrote:QUOTE (peet @ Jul 12 2018, 02:26 AM) Stormy Daniels arrested.

And released with charges dismissed.

That story is many layers of "wtf even happened here." This smells staged by a small group of abject morons, and I'm not excluding the possibility that Daniels was in on it.

Seriously, in at 3 out at 6? Come the $#@! on.