Greece - demise of the eurozone as we know it?

mcwarren4 · Post by **mcwarren4** » Tue May 22, 2012 10:06 pm

Just curious what the sentiment of our euro friends is on this subject. I'm particularly interested in German opinions on the matter. It seems to me that the eurozone will kick out the periphery, they will leave, or Germans will essentially be conquered without a single shot beig fired. Prior to the French election I could see it was only a matter of "when" (no ifs about it) Greece would exit the euro - whether by choice or getting kicked out. Then it would only be a matter of months if not weeks others would exit. Now I see a path to that not happening but it would require Germany to essentially relive the fiscal sacrifice of combining east and west Germany... along the way losing their financial sovereignty. What is my euro friends' take on it?

takingarms1 · Post by **takingarms1** » Wed May 23, 2012 12:33 am

There was some discussion of it in this thread.

TheCorsair · Post by **TheCorsair** » Wed May 23, 2012 9:24 am

mcwarren4 wrote:QUOTE (mcwarren4 @ May 23 2012, 08:06 AM) it would require Germany to essentially relive the fiscal sacrifice of combining east and west Germany... along the way losing their financial sovereignty.

Better yet, let Germany have its fiscal sovereignty and leave the eurozone. This would be a great outcome to save the poor german taxpayer and indeed other northern hardworking, pious, morally correct, superior surplus countries in the eurozone. A new Deutsche Mark. Also it will give the southern countries the currency devaluation they really need and deserve to help restore growth.

Germany will never do this though because the euro for over 10 years has been a godsend to German exports and their political influence in europe. There's no wonder most of the eurozone is in recession or negative growth and Germany one of the rare growth areas. Nevermind that for over 10 years German banks were only too willing to provide goods to the south on credit. They want to have their cake and eat it too.

So instead we hear about the big fat lazy PIIGS and how irresponsible they are with their lazy laid back ouzo/Guinness/champagne/grappa lifestyle extorting the poor hardworking, pious etc German taxpayer who works so hard day and night to support the lazy undeserving PIIGS. Oh no it can't be that the eurozone is flawed and has a Central bank that can't even act as the lender of last resort like the Fed does... oh no, of course not.

Unelected puppets of a German-dominated EU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_sYcpSLxWI

Break up the euro and restore human dignity - 22nd May 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fi6w1C7uMs...feature=related

Battle of the Teutonic forest anyone?

"Quintili Vare, legiones redde!“ ('Quintilius Varus, give me back my legions!')

Eurozone... give us back our national currencies because the eurozone was supposed to bring nations together not impose harsh failed austerity policies.

and if German exports and jobs suffer because China can do better on price.. then so be it, Germany can impose their own austerity policies and see how they like it!

mcwarren4 · Post by **mcwarren4** » Wed May 23, 2012 2:42 pm

I don't disagree with some of our points such as the fact that Germany has benefitted from the arrangement or that it won't be easy for anyone if the eurozone changes. I do disagree with the tone of your response. The PIIGS ad you call them aren't exactly saintly in this either. They agreed to certain terms as a condition for being admitted into the eurozone and they have failed to meet the criteria. Yes, Germany wants to have its cake and eat it too, but wouldn't that also be true of the periphery? I've always contended this would be a failed experiment because you can't create a fiscal union without having a common culture or a common government. The latter can be solved, but the former cannot. Greece is awesome. So is Germany, as is Ireland and Spain. But a watered down melting pot of the these would be like killing all of these cultures and would leave an entire continent with a manufactured identity. Unfortunately for the EU a large part of the Greek culture is the underground economy that operates outside the prying eyes of the taxing authority.

takingarms1 · Post by **takingarms1** » Wed May 23, 2012 3:02 pm

Oh I don't know, I think it's possible to preserve their respective cultures and also be part of an economic union. We're talking about currency and government spending. I don't think those are culturally based as much as you seem to indicate. Certainly Greece can cut down on their underground economy BS if they want to and still preserve a decidedly greek culture.

I think the bigger problem is that Europeans have this built up well of hatred for one another based on centuries of disputes with one another. You see it in these threads when people like TC make references to nazi germany. It's crazy talk, but those emotions are still present and they influence how other europeans see Germans generally.

Now I also agree that Germany benefits from an EU. Of course they do and they should, or else why would they bother to join an EU? All the members should benefit, just like all the members should probably have to sacrifice some when the time comes for that. Now I get where the common greek person is coming from. Most greek citizens probably had little to do with where the economy in their country is today. Most of them weren't the ones who made the decisions that screwed things up so badly. But that changes nothing. The fact is, they are where they are, and the only question is, where to go from here? To continue the kind of defeceit spending that is going on in Greece is not going to solve anything, regardless of whether greece is an EU member or not. Being in the EU is not going to change the fact that most greek citizens are in for some serious hard times ahead. I get that they don't want to accept that... but it's reality. Nobody is going to keep lending them money right now unless they make some changes. An exit from the EU won't change that.

On the other hand, an exit from the EU would allow Greece to abandon the euro and play with their money supply to help ease the economic pain. I am not sure that is going to be pretty either for the common greek though, especially if they end up in banana-republic-style inflation. I mean the end result of that kind of thing would basically be the same as cutting government spending. For example, sure you'd get to keep your pension or whatever, but it'd be worth half as much. That's the same as a 50% cut in my book, although it probably looks more palatable from where the common greek is sitting.

TheCorsair · Post by **TheCorsair** » Wed May 23, 2012 3:30 pm

WW2 is very relevant

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20...eek-debt-crisis

TheCorsair · Post by **TheCorsair** » Wed May 23, 2012 3:43 pm

mcwarren4, you're better off reading this blog.... we can talk about this all day but 2% of the eurozone being Greece is not the cause of the eurozone crisis

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/euro-crisis/

recent interview
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/audio/twt...ekprofessor.mp3

Adept · Post by **Adept** » Wed May 23, 2012 3:58 pm

TakingArms wrote:QUOTE (TakingArms @ May 23 2012, 06:02 PM) I think the bigger problem is that Europeans have this built up well of hatred for one another based on centuries of disputes with one another. You see it in these threads when people like TC make references to nazi germany. It's crazy talk, but those emotions are still present and they influence how other europeans see Germans generally.

TC is a greek expat. Those people tend to be much more extreme than the people actually living in Europe.

The EU and Euro will be fine. TC is just shouting form the sidelines.

takingarms1 · Post by **takingarms1** » Wed May 23, 2012 4:02 pm

That's all well and good to say, Adept, but some UK fool wrote that article that TC keeps citing, which seems to claim that since Germany never paid any WWII reparations that somehow they have a duty to bail out greece. That's just insane to me, given that all the people who made any decisions, fired any weapons, or did any damage in WW2 are all dead.

Adept · Post by **Adept** » Wed May 23, 2012 6:37 pm

UK has a big population, so they produce quite a few fools, and it's easy to get populist points over there by predicting doom and gloom on the Euro.